Delhi riots may have left impact on vote patterns

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The 2022 MCD polls are the first election held in Delhi since February 2020 riots in north-eastern parts of the national capital. That the riots were on the mind of the voters can be seen from the higher voter turnout for the MCD elections in the riot-hit wards . An HT analysis shows that it might also have had some impact on voting patterns.

One way to assess the impact of the 2020 riots on the election is to check voting patterns in Muslim-dominated areas. Since data on religious composition of either wards or assembly constituencies (ACs) is not available, HT has classified ACs as Muslim-dominated on the basis of whether the Aam Admi Party (AAP) fielded Muslim candidates in those ACs in the 2015 and 2020 elections. This is based on the assumption that AAP is likely to field Muslim candidates in Muslim-dominated areas. The ACs where the AAP did so are the same five in both the elections: Ballimaran and Matia Mahal in the Chandni Chowk parliamentary constituency (PC); Seelampur and Mustafabad in the North East Delhi PC; and Okhla in East Delhi PC.

An analysis of the AAP’s seat share in these ACs shows that in the Muslim-dominated ACs of North East Delhi and East Delhi PCs, the AAP has either lost seat share compared to 2017 or did not have a significant seat share to begin with. On the other hand, either the Congress or both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have gained seat share in Seelampur and Mustafabad; while both the BJP and Congess maintained their 40% seat share (for each) in Okhla AC. This appears to in sync with the theory that the riots led to religious polarisation from which those supporting Hindus and Muslims in the riots – the BJP and the Congress – have gained, whereas the AAP has lost by not taking a stand.

These trends do not hold in the Chandni Chowk PC, where the riots were not as violent as in north-east Delhi. There, the AAP has increased its seat share in Matia Mahal from one-third of total wards in 2017 to a clean sweep in 2022, replacing the Congress where the party had won in 2017. Similarly, in Ballimaran, it has maintained its seat share of two-third of total wards. To be sure, the BJP has gained one-third of total wards in Ballimaran, reducing the Congress’s tally to nil.

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