If the polls prove right, it would mean a major setback for the Congress and AIADMK, sizeable gains for the BJP and DMK and a mixed bag for the Left.
Two polls gave the Trinamool Congress a comfortable majority in the 294-member assembly, one gave the BJP a clear win and two suggested it would be a close fight in which neither side getting a majority was a possibility. What they all agreed on was that the alliance of the Left, Congress and ISF would come a cropper in the state.
The Times Now CVoter poll gave the TMC between 152 and 164 seats and the BJP between 109 and 121 seats while Today’s Chanakya projected an even more impressive win for TMC with 169 to 191 seats leaving the BJP with 97-119. In sharp contrast, Jan ki Baat projected between 162 and 185 seats for the BJP and just 104-121 seats for TMC. The India Today Axis poll made it a dead heat with TMC getting 130-156 and BJP 134-160. Irrespective of which, if any, of these projections is correct, it would mean a huge gain for the BJP in a state that had hitherto been almost barren territory in assembly polls.
While all the polls agreed on an NDA victory in Assam, they disagreed on the extent of it, with two projecting that it would be a relatively close fight and two others giving the ruling alliance a near repeat of the 2016 result.
For Kerala, two of the four polls forecast a sweeping win for the LDF while two others suggested the governing alliance would win but with a reduced majority. Two successive terms for the same front would in itself be a rarity in the state, a second successive win with enhanced majority perhaps unprecedented.
The one state on which all the polls agreed not just on the direction but also the extent of victory was Tamil Nadu. The DMK-led front seems all set to displace the AIADMK from office with even the most conservative estimates putting the M K Stalin-led alliance’s tally at 160 in the 234-member assembly.
Counting of votes will be held on Sunday when we will know just how accurate the pollsters were.
