- Natural gas prices skyrocketed in the wake Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
- A survey of professional forecasts showed expectations for inflation next year rose to 5.8 per cent
- The economy had showed growth of 0.2 per cent in the July-September quarter
Inflation hit a new record in the 19 countries that use the euro currency, fuelled by out-of-control prices for natural gas and electricity due to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Economic growth also slowed ahead of what economists fear is a looming recession, largely as a result of those higher prices sapping Europeans’ ability to spend.
Annual inflation reached 10.7 per cent in October, the European Union’s statistics agency, Eurostat, reported on Monday. That is up from 9.9 per cent in September and the highest since statistics began to be compiled for the eurozone in 1997. Natural gas prices skyrocketed in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine as Russia throttled back pipeline supplies to a trickle of what they were before the war. Europe has had to resort to expensive shipments of liquefied gas that come by ship from the US and Qatar to keep generating electricity and heating homes.
While liquid gas succeeded in filling Europe’s storage for the winter, the higher prices have made some industrial products such as steel or fertilizer expensive or simply unprofitable to make. Consumer spending power has been drained at shops and elsewhere as more income goes to pay for fuel and utility bills. Natural gas prices for short-term purchases have eased recently but remain high on markets for coming months, suggesting that costly energy may be a persistent drag on the economy.
A survey of professional forecasts last week by the European Central Bank showed expectations for inflation next year rose to 5.8 per cent from 3.6 per cent predicted three months ago. The inflation outbreak has been an international phenomenon, sending price increases to near 40-year highs in the US as well. Eurostat figures showed prices for food, alcohol and tobacco have increasingly joined energy prices as a major contributor, rising 13.1 per cent, while energy prices rose an astronomical 41.9 per cent.
The economy, which had been rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic, showed growth of 0.2 per cent in the July-September quarter, slowing from 0.8 per cent in the second quarter. Economists say a major reason is higher prices, and many are predicting the economy will shrink over the last months of this year and the first part of next year. Higher inflation has sent a chain of tremors through the economy.
It has led the European Central Bank to raise interest rates at the fastest pace in its history with two three-quarter point increases at its October 27 and September 8 meetings. That has sent market borrowing costs higher for companies and governments and raised concerns that the war on inflation will hurt growth. Meanwhile, higher bond market costs for governments remain a concern for heavily indebted eurozone countries such as Italy.
ALSO READ | UK inflation accelerates to 40-year-high amid food cost rise
ALSO READ | Inflation may fall to 5.2 pc next fiscal on normal rains, ease in supplies sans no exogenous shocks