Monday Musings: AIMIM’s offer that nobody wants to accept

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Pune: When the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) made an offer for alliance last week, its leaders knew they have little chance. The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) partners – Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party, and Congress – to whom the offer was made, were also not to accept it. Yet, the proposal put up by Imtiaz Jaleel, AIMIM’s lone member of Parliament (MP) in Maharashtra and its state unit president, created a buzz as the party set the cat among the pigeons.

With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) successfully establishing itself as a Hindutva party, garnering votes of majority community in elections after elections, the Opposition rely heavily on Muslim vote bank. So, why are key players in Maharashtra politics avoiding AIMIM? The answer lies in the AIMIM’s perception and its inability to emerge as a broad-based party cutting across religious and caste lines.

For Shiv Sena, even distantly appearing to be aligning with AIMIM is fraught with an extreme risk as it tries hard to retain brand of Hindutva amid attack from the BJP. That explained when Uddhav Thackeray reiterated Sena’s stand in an unambiguous manner saying the party will not have any understanding with AIMIM. The Sena chief repeatedly asserted that his outfit is a “Hindutvavadi” party, while the AIMIM’s offer for an alliance is a “conspiracy” by the opposition BJP to defame the Sena.

For the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress, Muslim votes are crucial. However, striking a direct or indirect deal with Asaduddin Owaisi-led party even if it enjoys some clouts among Muslims, means losing Sena and the power they enjoy in Maharashtra.

The AIMIM currently has two MLAs in the Maharashtra legislative assembly with the party having considerable clouts in Aurangabad where it has 20 corporators. The party made first inroads in the state during 2012 when it won 11 seats in Nanded Municipal Corporation. Subsequently, the AIMIM expanded its base in other parts of Marathwada and north Maharashtra.

During the 2014 state assembly elections, AIMIM threw surprise when it won two seats from Aurangabad Central and Byculla in Mumbai. It created history of sorts in 2019 Lok Sabha polls when the AIMIM won the Aurangabad seat, which was till then Sena’s stronghold for over two decades. The same year, the party registered victory in Malegaon and Dhule, the two towns from north Maharashtra, during the assembly polls.

Now, if the AIMIM wants to grow its base in Maharashtra beyond Marathwada-north Maharashtra belt, it requires to broad-base itself by either jumping on the bandwagon acceptable to majority or striking alliance with others. This was what Sena did when it struck deal with the BJP and joined the Ayodhya issue by moving from nativists agenda to expand its base beyond the Mumbai-Thane-Nashik belt.

For Muslim voters, who are neither naïve nor radical, AIMIM provides a sense of belonging when other parties may have not been adequate enough to provide that. However, the AIMIM’s inability to garner votes required to win elections makes it party of “vote cutter” or “B team” for others. This has been seen in Uttar Pradesh or other states like Bihar as well where the AIMIM ate into the Congress and other parties’ base by winning over Muslim votes, which in turned help the BJP.

In democracy, calling any outfit as “vote cutter” or B team may not be correct as no party can claim sole right over a particular vote-bank. Besides, the constitutional right to contest in constituencies of choice is extended to all political parties, not just one.

The BJP understands this well. For the BJP leaders, whether the AIMIM goes with the MVA or not, the mere talk offers reason to attack the Sena, its principal rival these days. This was seen as BJP leader and former Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis attacked the Sena immediately after the mere offer made by Jaleel on Saturday.

“Will Sena and AIMIM come together? This cannot be ruled out. The Sena has started ‘Azaan’ competition and saying Janab Balasaheb Thackeray, hence their coming together cannot be ruled out,” Fadnavis had said.

Fadnavis may have taken a dig at the Sena, which along with the NCP and the Congress have for now rejected the AIMIM offer. Politics remains a game of possibilities and Maharashtra may not be an exception to this in future, if not today.


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